The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable review ´ eBook or Kindle ePUB

read The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable review ´ eBook or Kindle ePUB ì 'The Black Swan' is a concept that will change the way you look at the world Black Swans underlie almost everything from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives Nassim Taleb explains everything we knTaleb explains everything we know about what we don't know and shows us how to face the world. Taleb is a pretty good writer but I thought this was a very uneven book As I read it I was constantly alternating between Wow that's a really great insight a great way of presenting it and Gee who doesn't realize that or even That just seems flat out wrongIt's a book that should have been read by the uantitative analysts uants working for the hedge funds and investment banks in early 2008; but it probably wouldn't have made much difference in the financial melt down that followed The problem with all their uantitative analysis was as Taleb rightly points out that it assumed that everything that could happen in the markets belonged to the domain of bell curve events and that hence probabilities could be computed for any possible market outcome But Black Swan events very rare not even things we think about happening and not linked to the factors that determine day to day market swings do occur they are of course unpredictable and they can have massive effects Some sorts of unpredictable events such as unexpected conflict flareups deaths of influential national leaders are not Black Swan events because they are events we know about and they are not really unexpected only the timing is in doubt Others the real Black Swans such as 911 and the derivatives bubble have effects that play out over yearsBut really other than as a cautionary tale for those whose job it is to predict unpredictable things on a daily basis these observations probably don't surprise most people who have thought much about the nature of reality and our grasp of the future No one that I know owns a crystal ball Without one even broad outlines of the future that we believe are pretty certain still have an element of riskuncertainty; and perhaps a significant element than we realizeAs the esteemed Donald not Trump the other one pointed out in one of his rare truly insightful comments there are the unknowns that we know about and the unknowns that we don't know about It's the latter part of reality where the Black Swans live Of course they also live in Australia which is how the phrase got its meaning

download È eBook or Kindle ePUB Â Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Rlie almost everything from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives Nassim. This book has diminishing returns on the time spent reading it Taleb's jeremiad is directed against well everyone who is not as enlightened as he is I trudged through this book because well everyone is reading it and enlightened people should know how to comment on it There I did it Now I can look down on all those people out there who aren't enlightened like Taleb And now meTaleb is actually on to something important if you can tolerate his self importance enough to filter his verbage to get his good ideas A central idea is that we assume everything in the world is Gaussian and then we base all our decisions about life on our Gaussian models But the significant life changing society changing events are outside the Gaussian Things like 9 11 They belong to Extremestan not Mediocristan The ideas are interesting Many are uite compelling But it really seems Taleb's main point is everyone else is an idiot It seems the details why are secondary to that pointI did find uite useful a good line of thought regarding the importance of narrative in grasping truth We are so drawn to narrative that all retained true facts must fit into our constructed narrative Other data are ignored or made to fit We need to be on the watch for data that disproves rather than confirms our story And perhaps we ought to learn better how to understand and speak in story Mmm God himself in the person of Jesus communicated truth in parables narratives No one else seems to have caught on Except Taleb of course

Nassim Nicholas Taleb  3 read & download

The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable'The Black Swan' is a concept that will change the way you look at the world Black Swans unde. I can summarize this book in two words Shit happensActually I should be fair since the author spent 300 pages laying out his beliefs and arguing his conclusions The real summary of this book should be Shit happens often than you thinkThe author Taleb rails against economics most philosophers and the way we incorporate news to allow us to make sense of events and everyday happenings He wants us to unlearn the way we think and learn while destroying the modern beliefs in statistics and at the same time eviscerating the nobel prize winners who got us to where we are todayWhile the author has valid points his writing style oscillates between boring repetitive and just plain bad Plus he uses the pronouns “I” and “me” often than any other author I have read Perhaps he is using his gigantic ego to prove the existence of fat tails in the standard bell curve and thus exhibit directly the central thesis which is that the Gaussian curve does not hold up in our modern “extremistan” society and trust me that that sentence is funny if you read the bookThe author does understand his limitation to some degree and even suggests skipping certain chapters though to be honest the chapters he recommends skipping I found to be the best in the bookI do recommend this for the ideas It is worth a readskim for anyone interested in statistics economics managing money or just generally intellectually curious