Gwynne Dyer ´ Climate Wars PDF

DOC Ï READER Climate Wars FREE ð NATURALTREATMENT ↠ Popular Ebook, Climate Wars By Gwynne Dyer There are many interesting things in this book, readers are very amazed by the contents of the book Climate Wars By Gwynne Dyer please download or read online hereThings in this book readers are very amazed by the contents of the Consider this a study guide to learn about climate change It provides some fairly outlandish scenarios and historically defendable in premise to guide the discussion and explain the history and research of the difficult topic It should be read in light of other sources however to insure the dramatic license taken by the author does not deter the reader from internalizing its main points It leaves recommendations of policy to us to determine for the future but it effectively argues the necessity of doing something

DOC Þ Climate Wars ´ Gwynne Dyer

Book Climate Wars By Gwynne Dyer please download or read online here t is a shame I did not read the book when it was published maybe it was the flashy cover that turned me away from it Without being a real expert on the field it seems to me it reflects well the knowledge and policy on the subject at the end of the previous decade interspersed with future conflict scenarios motivated partially by climate change In ten years the political situation has changed and so does the science I think we can be a bit optimistic on CCS but for the untrained eye the climate wars might still be the same One could argue many of these potential conflicts could start reasons other than climate or food security but the general idea still stands if war is politics by other means we might end up doing environmental policy with a rifle in our hands It is probably cheap of me to say that I found the isolationist UK EU and US scenario a bit too current for my own peace of mind but there you go We might end up building a wall or two even if climate is not to blame for most migration The last third of the book was the most interesting for me starting with Chapter 6 Real World Politics probably because I had forgotten most of what had happened at the the Copenhagen 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference Chapter 7 Emergency measures on geoengineering was also very good at least for someone who knows next to nothing about the subject The last War scenario is great because it is not a war one I should certainly read Under a Green Sky The final chapter was also very good starting with the Clark reference For all the apocalyptic blurbs and a certain pessimismrealism at the beginning of the book it was good to finish with a positive note We can do this Or so I hope

KINDLE Climate Wars

Climate WarsPopular Ebook Climate Wars By Gwynne Dyer There are many interesting 45 Fancy some bigger concerns as a distraction from the horrid new homepageI won’t be the only person whose Goodreads shelves aren’t an accurate reflection of all their interests and opinions but it still seems weird that I only have ten “environment” books – it’s just a subject that since I was a kid in the 80s I’ve mostly read about in newspapers and journals as books go out of date so uickly My knowledge has become bitty over the years a lot of recent models seemed to be showing pessimistic results but I didn’t really have an overall sense of where things may be going Since the Brexit vote probably by way of displacement or catharsis I’ve been watching and reading a fair bit about natural disasters climate change about the absurd lengths US preppers go to and relishing episodes of the BBC historical farm series I hadn’t got round to Strange that that obscure 2005 thing Tales From the Green Valley one of my most watched DVDs eventually spawned a whole set of similar programmes millions love Yes but I like their first album best and I got it when it was newly released Wartime Farm proved to be one of the most thought provoking things about climate change I’ve ever encountered – because it’s not directly about it but it does show how a society organised to deal with multiple shortages and where the strains were and could be that if the war had lasted a year or two longer there could have been people starving; that fields were becoming worn out because of constant cultivation and the lack of manure following the cull of livestock Then watch the Tudor one and consider that that was a society starting to run short of wood with the number of people it had even then which is why coal slowly became popularThe very existence of these series that our current society has capacity for people to reconstruct these sites and activities for the sake of entertainment and academic interest started to seem incredibly poignant and decadent something that could only happen in a fleeting and unusually comfortable place and age like the indoor flight of Bede’s sparrowMost of the recent environment books that interested me were expensive so I ended up scrabbling around on Scribd looking at various titles around 5 years old I’m really surprised how good this book was given its disaster movie cover It appealed to me in a trashy kind of way and I started it expecting a bunch of hard cli fi short stories not something with such solid research foundations and pragmatic examinations of different possibilities Outside fiction there still isn't much in book form that looks at how climate change might interact with geopolitics other than saying there would be wars because of water shortages and that's what this book by a military historian and journalist addresses often basing his hypotheses around studies that were commissioned by the US and UK military and international organisations I would like to see historians examining climate change and other future scenarios as they are already trained in looking at a bigger picture behind events whereas other types of specialised commentators tend to miss out multiple important factors unrelated to their field or contain a sort of fluffy emotive pleading with which I’ve got limited patience eg Naomi Klein Climate Wars contains potential scenarios occurring at different severities of climate change over the next hundred years all pretty brief with a lot space given to discussion of the science behind them than to hypothetical political events Here there is way than I expected about different feedback mechanisms uncertainty meticulous examination of the theories about various prehistoric extinctions the history of IPCC models and how those have been conservative compared with actual change and especially about ppm carbon dioxide levels their correlation with past climates and ice cores In various contexts Dyer says something which isn't mentioned often enough that reducing carbon emissions is a long game due to the complexity of the system and what has already been emitted things will not start getting better that uickly and indeed may get worse for a while before stabilising Only now are there signs of the ozone layer starting to repair itself twenty years after CFCs were banned and nearly thirty since environmentally minded westerners started to stop using them but going by past patterns melted ice and permafrost might not be back in similar form to the early twentieth century for thousands of years Some people are impossible to convince satisfy politically because this is about trying to prevent things and if they can't see the damage happening they don't believe But if it does happen beyond a certain point it’s not something that can be reversed within a single lifetime let alone a few years Geoengineering is rarely mentioned in single topic articles about climate change and I've never actually sought out papers about it So it was great to get an overview of some of the main types I am also a big fan of the author's balanced attitude and presentation to it I am instinctually a dark green but I've never really been able to live like one largely due to health issues Besides in pretty much all aspects of life I've seen how much compromise is necessary; I don't think there's a job around where a person doesn't have to put some principles to one side My friends tend to be bright greens as that fits with their temperaments generally On a gut level I dislike the possible technological solutions they favour feeling that humans as a species need to get the fuck over themselves and accept that some things are bigger and important than they are but I also accept that geoengineering projects are pretty likely Yet Dyer has made me accept them with almost no grudgefulness – a major change in the way I’ve thought all my life Perhaps it’s because this book just like most of the up to date climate science suggests things are getting worse faster than we used to think they would and it's easy to see leaders from my own generation having to decide whether to deploy solutions like putting particles into the atmosphere for temporary cooling until the world has genuinely and substantially cut emissions This stuff may be needed at least 50 years sooner than I used to think it would be He has sympathies with a dislike of these projects – but he also values the progress in knowledge social euality and co operation that has occurred over the last hundred years or so I still think humans are too self important but I also think those enlightened attitudes of modern society which have only really developed over the past hundred years or must be preserved for human life to have any decent uality I am not sure how much technology is sustainable but I always want people to know stuff to understand why things such as disease or weather might be happening and not ascribe it to religion or scapegoated minorities regardless of whether they can do anything about it It's probably obvious to a lot of people that women made social progress because of technology such as labour saving devices having just spent ten days without washing machine and dishwasher some of that with no hot running water either I'm particularly cognisant of the time and work these things save but it’s not just that It was in the 1960s when people in the West became less constrained than ever that emissions rose most sharply And before machine power as the author points out huge numbers of people were servants and slaves – drudge work for powerful elites was how most large projects buildings and empires were accomplished and it seems plausible that in a society returning to lower technology such systems could again emerge after the demise of the generation or two that were acculturated to a freer and eual way of life as the population would be way dense than could be supported by a hunter gatherer way of life I don’t really have a horse in the race I know I’m fucked anyway if much goes wrong much as I’d like to be a resourceful rugged survivor and I’m not going to have any descendants around So maybe it’s odd to care But this book has shifted my outlook towards a sense that trying to reduce climate change is important for preserving some semblance of euality in the future not just or maybe than because of feelings about the greater importance of the Earth and environment that are something like a faithI also like the author’s interest in trying to understand how the other side thinks rather than condemning them outright this about sociological research by Donald Braman When you provide the conservative or individualistic type folks with the condition that says we want regulation of pollution they see red This is a disaster They despise the suggestion that that is a solution; but then over if you ask them how severe they think the global warming problem is they say not very severe at all First we don’t really think it’s happening Secondly if it’s happening it’s not because humans are involved And thirdly if there are conseuences they’re likely to be mixed Some of them will be good some of them will be bad it’s hard to say on balance that this is something that’s terrible or to be avoided But show them the solution of deregulated nuclear power and all of sudden global warming is a real problem and we need to deal with it now Not only is it a threat to us very soon but humans are contributing to it and sure enough the conseuences are going to be dire One solution resonates with their preferred vision of how society should work private orderings deregulation scientific knowhow overcoming the threat of environmental harm The other solution is the polar opposite from their perspective increased regulation clamping down on private enterprise And their perception of the risks that are associated with climate change—risks that shouldn’t have anything to do with either of the solutions—really fluctuate uite a bit He also has a surprising benevolence about human nature Considering how warlike human society has been through most of history it’s actually pretty amazing that it has become able to co operate on such a large scale though by no means perfectly in the last 70 years or so via organisations like the United Nations; that it managed not to blow itself up during the Cold War; and although the climate agreements from Rio Kyoto Copenhagen Paris etc needed to be stricter it’s uite remarkable that people have actually made a start considering that not so long ago the same leading powers were just plundering colonies for their own gain This doesn’t do anything to change the actual results of those agreements but it was nice to go “actually yeah” and be positive about these achievements for a whileKnowing nothing about the author at the start of the book I had assumed a military historian would have obvious right wing values so I was really surprised how much this book chimed with my own concerns right down to a sense that he prizes personal freedom but sees communal solutions as necessary to deal with the challenges of climate change He also uietly accepts that large animal conservation projects are unlikely to be successful in the longer term As several GR friends will have heard me complain I’m perenially exasperated by the lack of joined up thinking in futurology I'm glad Dyer makes a small attempt to mesh another strand that's increasingly talked about by the 2020s we may be plunged into a struggle over the proper role of artificial intelligence But he doesn't and I'm not sure anybody has co ordinated projections about robots will take all our jobs with dwindling oil and climate worsening and the attendant political upheavals If the climate projections here from the likes of James Hansen are any way correct I'm thinking maybe a decade or two of automation before it starts to stall unravelThe biggie I think Dyer misses out is how society will manage without plastics and other petrochemical products I have reservations about the keep it in the ground slogan really I think it needs to be save it for later – also a principle that may communicate better with conservatives we know how to produce energy without oil and there's some really good stuff in this book about making renewables into huge transnational grids so they can make energy available at all times uoted from George Mobiot’s Heat but what about the euipment that is making the renewable energy the turbines solar panels or common items used in medical care that governments are likely to regard as essential priorities for these materials long after iPhone replacement gets rationed Fertilisers are mentioned we are literally eating oil but in the optimistic conclusion to the book there's little extrapolation about how bllions of people might be supported in say 200 years’ time without those There is an allusion half way through to the over optimism of some geo engineers and bright greens who figure humans will fix everything before it gets too late even though they don't really know how this might happen but I feel the author or editor finds it difficult not to end on a high note and ends up resorting to this himself in his conclusion The book grabbed me from the first because of prescient elements in some of the future scenarios which seemed like they might have been written just now not six or eight years ago Book first published 2008 revised 2010 In at least two of the scenarios the US puts up a fence or wall along the Mexican border And as an escalation of much of what we're seeing now the following is fairly spine chilling such that it makes you wonder if the purely political aspects of this would take as long as twenty yearsScenario 1 2045 Average global temperature 28 degrees Celsius higher than 1990 Global population 58 billion This is one of the nastier ones SINCE THE FINAL COLLAPSE of the European Union in 2036 under the stress of mass migration from the southern to the northern members the reconfigured Northern Union France Benelux Germany Scandinavia Poland and the old Habsburg domains in central Europe has succeeded in closing its borders to any further refugees from the famine stricken Mediterranean countries Italy south of Rome has been largely overrun by refugees from even harder hit North African countries and is no longer part of an organised state but Spain Padania northern Italy and Turkey have all acuired nuclear weapons and are seeking with little success to enforce food sharing on the better fed countries of northern Europe Britain which has managed to make itself just about self sufficient in food by dint of a great national effort has withdrawn from the continent and shelters behind its enhanced nuclear deterrent Russia the greatest beneficiary of climate change in terms of food production is the undisputed great power of AsiaAlthough right now one wouldn't be inclined to place Poland with thoseThere are others which don't feel so prescient based on current news including the nearest 2019 a Colder War in which a years long standoff is happening between Russia Canada the US and a Europe backed Norway over territorial and oil rights in the Arctic Although no missiles are launched the tension delays international co operation on emissions and climate change leading to greater warming and desertification in the long runI doubt that Western governments decades hence would remain as opposed to geoengineering as 'Scenario 7 2042' suggests where they won't countenance particles resembling volcanic eruptions being put into the stratosphere This was by far the most sensationally SFF of the scenarios not long after a coalition of East Asian countries started to release the particles without global approval there is unfortunately a massive volcanic eruption of Mount Toba Yup the same volcano thought to have caused a human population bottleneck c 70 000 years ago This eruption is only a sixth that size but still 3 times the 1815 Tambora eruption that was among the biggest in the last 4000 years a twice a millennium level event that was responsible for the year without a summer exactly 200 years ago This implausibly bad luck may match the book’s tabloidesue cover but doesn't belong with projections otherwise based on good uality climate science and informed political observation or with his analogy that in our world the possibilities for fairly disastrous climate scenarios need to be faced to the same extent that a homeowner should consider the possibility of fires or burglaries and take appropriate precautions A smaller eruption of the Mt St Helens Pinatubo size would have got the point across fine in this story Dyer had no way of forseeing Fukushima and how that would make many countries wary of nuclear power than they had been even a year earlier and it sounds like it may also be uneconomic now as well as the Tories being suspicious of China If only he had had been right about Islamic fundamentalists whom he feels loom too large in IPCC predictions as an American obsession of the 00s one that he thought would soon wane in geopolitical importance and whom he assumed would have little traction in Europe Which is not to say that the Middle East is ignored in some scenarios countries attack one another due to water shortages but because world oil consumption is much lower by this point it has far less impact outside the region and they are left to themselves The following is easy to say with hindsight but history should indicate that people at the time don't always feel a conflict is about the same things that historians will later identify as macro underlying causes when was the last time you saw a news report describing the conflict in Syria as being caused by a drought Elsewhere in the book Dyer identifies all the reuisite factors but happens to have missed a trick on the particular issue of Islamic extremists which sadly now dominates the headlines IPCC report author Leo Fuerth suggests that massive social upheavals will be accompanied by intense religious and ideological turmoil in which the principal winners will be authoritarian ideologies and brands of religion that reject scientific rationalism or in another of the future scenarios The Great Awakening of the 2040s the third in American history actually was largely a response to the disillusionment and helplessness many Americans felt in the face of these multiple disasters Science engineering conventional politics—none of these seemed to make even a dent in the permanent crisis people found themselves trapped in and many turned to extreme forms of religion Militant sects proliferated the indisputable fact is that people or at least people in the small scale societies that anthropologists study always attack the neighbors before they starve Would that be true of large developed societies too How badly do we want to find out Because even some relatively rich countries are going to have trouble feeding their people as global warming progresses while some countries nearby will still have foodfinal paragraph is in comment 1